Not A Likely Scenario Says CDC
Posted on Aug 26, 2009 by Reena Daruwalla | Comments 0
Cartoon Courtesy http://www.sodahead.com
The grim predictions published in a report by the US president’s scientific advisers, that half of the America population could be infected with the H1N1 virus this fall has been mitigated by some voices of caution more recently.
This New York Times article, provided some respite from the predictions of the president’s scientific advisers. Following the publication of the report on Monday, the officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the agency with the most expertise on influenza pandemics, on Tuesday suggested that the projections should be regarded with caution.
It was clarified that Monday’s report is not a likely scenario and that if the virus keeps behaving the way it is now, anything like 90,000 deaths is not expected. Even one of the experts who helped prepare the report said Tuesday that the numbers were probably on the high side, given that some weeks had passed since the calculations were finished in early August, according to the NY Times report.
An article in the Examiner has also questioned the numbers, suggesting that this was ‘pure panic’. So far there have been some 522 deaths in the US resulting from the pandemic. The article draws attention to the fact that Monday’s report is “not a prediction but a planning scenario for which public health officials should be prepared.” The article is also reassuring in that it quotes some interesting figures:
Flu kills around 35,000 people in an ordinary year. Not to minimize anyone’s death, but 522 dead out of 305 million Americans isn’t even a measurable statistic.
The Spanish Flu of 1918, the model for a modern-day epidemic, killed just two percent of those who became infected –that’s it.
In conclusion it would not be amiss to remind ourselves not to panic. As of now, neither the virus itself (in terms of the fact that there is no significant mutation) not the number of lives it has claimed is in itself alarming.
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Posted in: H1N1 • Swine Flu News
